SAIC Sales Rebound; VW, Wuling YoY Growth

In a surprising move, SAIC Motor Corporation Limited released its November sales data on the evening of the 2nd, a significant departure from the usual practice of waiting until the 7th or 8th of the following month. This early disclosure hints at positive performance, as companies usually rush to announce good news and delay the release of disappointing figures. By announcing its sales figures a week early, SAIC Motors indicates that there is encouraging news to share.

Upon reviewing the sales report, a notable achievement stands out. In November, SAIC sold 479,000 vehicles, which marks a year-over-year decline of 7%. While any decrease is concerning, this figure represents a significant improvement compared to the 18% drop recorded in October. Furthermore, month-to-month, sales grew by 19%, suggesting a positive momentum that merits further observation.

To provide some context, the sales figures for SAIC peaked in 2018 at an astonishing 7.05 million vehicles, a record that remains unbeaten in the industry today. Even other booming automakers like BYD may not surpass this record for several years. However, since 2019, SAIC’s sales have faced a prolonged downturn, with year-on-year declines of 11.5% in 2019, followed by a 10% decline in 2020 due to the pandemic. In 2021, there was a slight recovery as the decrease slowed to 2.5%, only to resume a downward trajectory with declines of 3% in 2022 and 5% in 2023. Consequently, SAIC has experienced five consecutive years of sales decreases.

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Looking ahead to 2024, the sales slump shows no signs of abating, accelerating instead. February witnessed an alarming 31% drop in sales, leaving the market in a state of panic. As if that weren't enough, August saw just 258,000 vehicles sold, a staggering decline of 39% compared to the same period last year. If this trend persists, not only could SAIC lose its top position in the market, but it might struggle to maintain its second-place status as well.

September sales reflected a year-on-year decrease of 35%, marking a slight moderation compared to August. In October, the decline further reduced to 18%, and November recorded only a 7% drop. Compared to the August decrease of 39%, this 7% decline is viewed as substantial progress, with cumulative sales down by 19.5% over the first 11 months of the year.

SAIC is home to a variety of brands, but three pillars stand out: Volkswagen, GM, and Wuling. In 2018, their combined sales hit a peak of 7.05 million, with contributions of 2.06 million from Volkswagen, 2 million from GM, and 2.15 million from Wuling, accounting for 29%, 28%, and 30% of total sales, respectively. This trio represented a staggering 88% of SAIC's total sales volume.

In essence, SAIC has been the headquarters for joint venture vehicles, whose popularity has typically driven the company's performance. However, in the face of rapidly advancing electric vehicles, traditional joint venture brands are losing ground, leading to a concerning decline in SAIC's sales. By November of this year, SAIC’s cumulative sales for the first 11 months amounted to 3.53 million, down 45% from 6.39 million in the same period of 2018, nearly cutting sales in half.

The decline for these three marquee brands has been even more pronounced. Volkswagen's sales slipped from 1.9 million to 1.02 million, a 46% decrease. GM's sales plummeted from 1.8 million to 370,000, representing a dramatic drop of nearly 80%, the largest among the three brands. Wuling has fared comparatively better, with sales dipping from 1.85 million to 1.16 million, a decline of 37%, making it the least affected brand among the three giants.

Volkswagen is synonymous with Germany, while GM holds American roots. Wuling, however, represents a collaboration between China and the U.S., initiated through a tri-party partnership established in 2002 among SAIC Motor, General Motors, and Guangxi Automobile Group. This collaboration produced what is known as the Generic Wuling brand, although it’s commonly referred to simply as Wuling today.

After enduring several years of declining sales, Volkswagen and Wuling appear to be rebounding. In November, SAIC Volkswagen clocked in sales of 132,000, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year. This is particularly impressive considering that in September their year-on-year decline had been a hefty 22%. Month-on-month, sales also grew by 17%. Over the first 11 months of the year, cumulative sales reached 1.02 million, reflecting a relatively modest decline of 5%.

Meanwhile, GM Wuling managed to sell 160,000 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. This follows a 9% decline the previous month, while month-on-month growth reached 14%. Cumulatively, sales over the first 11 months totaled 1.16 million, with a reduction of just 3.4%, indicating a stabilizing trend. Wuling has also introduced stylish small cars that have resonated well with consumers, establishing a unique competitive angle.

Despite these advancements, GM’s sales continued to spiral downward, with only 56,000 vehicles sold in November. This figure represents a stark year-on-year decrease of 35%, totaling 370,000 units sold for the first 11 months, down 59%. Once a titan of the industry boasting annual sales of 2 million vehicles, GM’s current performance is struggling, grappling to maintain even 500,000 sales and still facing further declines. The once-dominant fuel-consuming vehicles are losing traction in the growing competitive landscape of China.

In conclusion, for SAIC Motor Corporation to maintain its market position, it must carve out a niche in the electric vehicle sector. November figures showed that SAIC's sales of electric vehicles climbed to 175,000, representing a 16% year-on-year increase and accounting for 36.5% of total sales. Cumulatively, sales for the first 11 months reached 1.08 million, enjoying nearly 20% growth.

Also noteworthy is the case of GAC Group, another state-owned enterprise that recently entered a strategic partnership with Huawei on October 30. The collaboration focuses on developing smart electric vehicles. Following this announcement, GAC’s stock price surged, reflecting the market's adaptability. Ultimately, consumers prioritize superior driving experiences and technological advantages over brand origins—a notion that raises questions about where the “soul” of a vehicle truly lies, namely in Germany for Volkswagen or America for GM.