Rising Growth Expectations Boost Electricity Demand

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its latest Beige Book, a critical resource compiled by the Kansas City Fed that provides insights into the economic pulse of the nation. This particular report, extracted from anecdotal evidence by various regional Federal Reserve Banks up until November 22, showcases a subtle yet palpable growth in the American economy during the surveyed period. It underscores a steady labor supply situation, an undeniable spike in electricity demand spurred by the expansion of data centers, and a cautiously optimistic outlook for economic prospects overall. However, businesses remain apprehensive about tariffs, identifying them as a significant upside risk to inflation.

Electricity Demand Stays Robust

The Beige Book indicates that, since the last report, most regions have witnessed a slight uptick in economic activity. While three regions have reported moderate or modest growth, this has largely compensated for stagnation or slight declines observed in two others. Such variances paint a picture of a diverse economic landscape, where localized challenges coalesce into overarching national trends.

Analyzing by sector reveals that consumer spending has mostly held steady. However, companies have noted an increasing sensitivity among consumers to price changes, particularly seeing a downturn in spending on household goods. This decline has been linked to limited liquidity among families that hinders discretionary spending. In the housing market, mortgage demand is reportedly low, influenced by fluctuating interest rates, leading to mixed reports regarding the demand for housing loans. Commercial real estate loans also show signs of being subdued; a trend reinforced by weak capital spending and material procurement in numerous regions.

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Interestingly, sales of agricultural equipment signify a notable headwind against overall investment activities, as the agricultural economy remains persistently sluggish. On the contrary, the energy sector, particularly in oil and gas, is holding steady, but the electricity demand continues to rise robustly. This growth in energy consumption is attributed largely to the rapid expansion of data centers; companies are planning to invest in renewable energy generation capacities to power these centers over the upcoming years, indicating a shift towards more sustainable energy sources.

Despite the generally modest growth in economic activity, the outlook appears to be improving across most regions and industries, with business contacts expressing optimism about the months ahead.

Labor Market Stabilization

The Federal Reserve's findings highlight that employment levels across various regions remain consistent with or slightly above previous benchmarks. The stark reduction in employee turnover has led to few reports of increases in headcounts, indicating a tepid recruitment environment. Layoffs have been minimal, and many contacts anticipate a steady or slight increase in employment over the next year, although there remains a cautious note regarding any potential uptick in hiring activities.

Most regions have experienced a deceleration in wage growth, now settling at moderate levels. Anticipations for future wage growth follow a similar trajectory. Noteworthy exceptions to this trend are entry-level positions and jobs in the technology sector, where both employment numbers and wages are seeing robust growth, with expectations for further escalations going into the future.

Inflation Remains Modest

During a related event, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the solid performance of the U.S. economy allows the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more cautious stance regarding rate cuts. Powell emphasized that since September, economic growth has consistently outpaced expectations. However, he pointed out that the FOMC is unable to make decisions based on the anticipated impacts of tariffs before gaining a clearer understanding of the situation.

Price increases across various regions have remained moderate. Contacts from both consumer and business sectors have reported increasing challenges in passing on costs to customers. For most companies, input prices are rising faster than sales prices, resulting in a squeeze on profit margins. While input prices generally are on the rise, several contacts have observed decreases in specific raw materials and non-labor costs. Ironically, rising insurance premiums are once again cited as a significant cost burden for many businesses, drawing a stark contrast in cost pressures facing different sectors.

Despite wider input price increases, a number of regions indicated expectation of ongoing price growth, with several businesses expressing that tariffs pose a considerable upside risk for inflation.

Regional Highlights from the Federal Reserve Districts

The Boston District: Overall economic activity showed a decline. Prices rose slightly. Despite a slowdown in hiring demand, employment remains stable. Consumers have curtailed spending in restaurants. Business real estate contacts perceive the office space sector as stabilizing with mixed expectations and uncertainties looming ahead.

The New York District: Spurred by robust manufacturing growth, regional economic activity has seen modest expansion. Employment has increased slightly, with wage growth remaining moderate. After a period of weakness, the commercial real estate market is stabilizing, and demand for office space has increased.

The Cleveland District: Commercial activity in the region has experienced slight growth, with expectations for increased activity in the coming months. The demand for business services remains robust, and there has been a minor uptick in non-residential construction. Overall, wages, non-labor input costs, and prices have all seen modest increases.

The Minneapolis District: Economic activity has gently risen, with job growth occurring but amid weak labor demand and decreased turnover rates. Wage growth remains moderate alongside slight price increases. Industries such as tourism, energy, commercial construction, and residential real estate show growth, while manufacturing and residential building have seen declines.

The Kansas City District: Exhibiting moderate economic growth, there is a strong outlook for demand increase supportive of hiring and capital expenditure plans. Most contacts indicate they do not plan substantial wage increases for the coming year. Regardless of consumers becoming more sensitive to price and quality, the outlook for consumer spending remains robust.